H2N2V1, Main, Exploration, bibRecord, 000370

Modelling of seasonal influenza and estimation of the burden in Tunisia.

Identifieur interne : 000370 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000369; suivant : 000371

Modelling of seasonal influenza and estimation of the burden in Tunisia.

Auteurs : L. Chlif [Tunisie] ; A. Aissi [Tunisie] ; L. Bettaieb [Tunisie] ; L. Kharroubi [Tunisie] ; L. Nouira [Tunisie] ; L. Yazidi [Tunisie] ; A. El Moussi [Tunisie] ; A. Maazaoui [Tunisie] ; A. Slim [Tunisie] ; A Ben Salah [Tunisie]

Source :

Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal [ 1020-3397 ] ; 2016-10-02.

RBID : Hal:pasteur-01451663

Abstract

The burden of influenza was estimated from surveillance data in Tunisia using epidemiological parameters of transmission with WHO classical tools and mathematical modelling. The incidence rates of influenza-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100 000 were 18 735 in 2012/2013 season; 5536 in 2013/14 and 12 602 in 2014/15. The estimated proportions of influenza-associated ILI in the total outpatient load were 3.16%; 0.86% and 1.98% in the 3 seasons respectively. Distribution of influenza viruses among positive patients was: A(H3N2) 15.5%; A(H1N1)pdm2009 39.2%; and B virus 45.3% in 2014/2015 season. From the estimated numbers of symptomatic cases, we estimated that the critical proportions of the population that should be vaccinated were 15%, 4% and 10% respectively. Running the model for the different values of R0, we quantified the number of symptomatic clinical cases, the clinical attack rates, the symptomatic clinical attack rates and the number of deaths. More realistic versions of this model and improved estimates of parameters from surveillance data will strengthen the estimation of the burden of influenza.

Url:

https://hal-riip.archives-ouvertes.fr/pasteur-01451663

Affiliations:

Tunisie

Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)

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to stream Main, to step Curation: 000370

Le document en format XML

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<author><name sortKey="Salah, A Ben" sort="Salah, A Ben" uniqKey="Salah A" first="A Ben" last="Salah">A Ben Salah</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="1"><hal:affiliation type="institution" xml:id="struct-207896" status="VALID">          <idno type="IdRef">112859585</idno>
          <idno type="ISNI">0000 0001 2295 9819</idno>
          <orgName>Université Tunis El Manar</orgName>
          <orgName type="acronym">UTM</orgName>
          <date type="start">2000</date>
          <desc>            <address>              <addrLine>Campus Universitaire Farhat Hached B.P. n° 94 - ROMMANA 1068 Tunis</addrLine>
              <country key="TN"></country>
            </address>
            <ref type="url">http://www.utm.rnu.tn/</ref>
          </desc>
        </hal:affiliation>
<country>Tunisie</country>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Eastern Mediterranean Health Journal</title>
<idno type="ISSN">1020-3397</idno>
<imprint><date type="datePub">2016-10-02</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en">              <p>The burden of influenza was estimated from surveillance data in Tunisia using epidemiological parameters of transmission with WHO classical tools and mathematical modelling. The incidence rates of influenza-associated influenza-like illness (ILI) per 100 000 were 18 735 in 2012/2013 season; 5536 in 2013/14 and 12 602 in 2014/15. The estimated proportions of influenza-associated ILI in the total outpatient load were 3.16%; 0.86% and 1.98% in the 3 seasons respectively. Distribution of influenza viruses among positive patients was: A(H3N2) 15.5%; A(H1N1)pdm2009 39.2%; and B virus 45.3% in 2014/2015 season. From the estimated numbers of symptomatic cases, we estimated that the critical proportions of the population that should be vaccinated were 15%, 4% and 10% respectively. Running the model for the different values of R0, we quantified the number of symptomatic clinical cases, the clinical attack rates, the symptomatic clinical attack rates and the number of deaths. More realistic versions of this model and improved estimates of parameters from surveillance data will strengthen the estimation of the burden of influenza.</p>
            </div>
</front>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Tunisie</li>
</country>
</list>
<tree><country name="Tunisie"><noRegion><name sortKey="Chlif, L" sort="Chlif, L" uniqKey="Chlif L" first="L" last="Chlif">L. Chlif</name>
</noRegion>
<name sortKey="Aissi, A" sort="Aissi, A" uniqKey="Aissi A" first="A" last="Aissi">A. Aissi</name>
<name sortKey="Bettaieb, L" sort="Bettaieb, L" uniqKey="Bettaieb L" first="L" last="Bettaieb">L. Bettaieb</name>
<name sortKey="El Moussi, A" sort="El Moussi, A" uniqKey="El Moussi A" first="A" last="El Moussi">A. El Moussi</name>
<name sortKey="Kharroubi, L" sort="Kharroubi, L" uniqKey="Kharroubi L" first="L" last="Kharroubi">L. Kharroubi</name>
<name sortKey="Maazaoui, A" sort="Maazaoui, A" uniqKey="Maazaoui A" first="A" last="Maazaoui">A. Maazaoui</name>
<name sortKey="Nouira, L" sort="Nouira, L" uniqKey="Nouira L" first="L" last="Nouira">L. Nouira</name>
<name sortKey="Salah, A Ben" sort="Salah, A Ben" uniqKey="Salah A" first="A Ben" last="Salah">A Ben Salah</name>
<name sortKey="Slim, A" sort="Slim, A" uniqKey="Slim A" first="A" last="Slim">A. Slim</name>
<name sortKey="Yazidi, L" sort="Yazidi, L" uniqKey="Yazidi L" first="L" last="Yazidi">L. Yazidi</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>

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Modelling of seasonal influenza and estimation of the burden in Tunisia.

Modelling of seasonal influenza and estimation of the burden in Tunisia.

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